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MTG mulligan simulator & draw odds
Deal opening hands from your real decklist with London mulligan rules, see the exact odds of opening with the lands you need, and work out the chance of drawing any card by any turn. Free, instant, no login.
One card per line. Put your commander under a “Commander” line and it stays in the command zone.
Your opening hand shows up here
Deal as many sevens as you like, mulligan the London way, and see how often this deck opens with a keepable land count.
Chance of drawing at least k of a group of cards. Deal a hand from a deck to fill in the deck size and land count.
By turn
| Turn | On the play | On the draw |
|---|
How the mulligan simulator works
Magic games are won and lost on the opening hand. This free mulligan simulator shuffles your real decklist and deals you a seven-card hand so you can practice the keep-or-mulligan decision before you sit down to play. It uses the London mulligan: each time you mulligan you draw a fresh seven, then put a card on the bottom of your library for each mulligan you've taken. In multiplayer Commander the first mulligan is free, and your commander starts in the command zone rather than your library; the simulator does both. Paste a Commander / EDH or 60-card decklist and deal as many hands as you like.
Reading your opening hand
Every card is looked up on Scryfall, so the simulator knows how many lands and spells you drew and the hand's average mana value, the numbers that decide whether a hand is keepable. A common rule of thumb is that a seven-card hand wants two to five lands: too few and you can't cast your spells, too many and you flood out. Alongside each hand you'll see the exact odds of every land count for your deck, and the cards a London mulligan would put on the bottom are marked (the most expensive spells go first).
How the probability calculator works
The probability calculator uses the hypergeometric distribution, the exact math for drawing without replacement, which is what happens when you draw from a shuffled deck. You give it your deck size, how many copies of what you care about are in the deck (for example 38 lands), how many cards you're drawing (7 for an opening hand) and the minimum you want. It returns the probability of drawing at least that many, then shows how those odds grow turn by turn, on the play and on the draw.
Why opening-hand odds matter
Knowing your numbers takes the guesswork out of deckbuilding. If you want to reliably hit your land drops, the calculator tells you whether 36, 38 or 40 lands gets you there. It works for any group of cards: a specific combo piece, early interaction, or your commander's key enabler. Pair it with the deck analyzer to check your ratios and the AI deck builder to build a more consistent list. The calculator is exact, not an estimate: it computes the full hypergeometric probability directly.